Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 45.999448 54.111826 62.977309 73.351386 85.122423 98.027646 113.209612
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 33.737522 44.495741 57.366831 73.752572 93.895849 117.679531 147.699589
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 26.925956 38.857106 54.166831 74.931498 101.997516 135.688301 180.349050
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 20.144833 31.638462 47.374492 69.975120 100.999787 141.426522 197.299437
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 17.288850 29.124774 46.210814 71.901308 108.631476 158.215025 228.955210
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 14.392425 25.975304 43.578268 71.228497 112.298276 169.583234 253.718900
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 13.290970 25.385625 44.550677 75.725715 123.445903 191.725037 294.279545
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.619503 21.741876 40.281560 71.723853 121.588509 195.082950 308.356840
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.618995 20.806997 40.210072 74.192318 129.557961 213.002232 344.112178
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.163983 20.782715 41.624513 79.127879 141.617651 237.550768 390.682200
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.346063 19.925448 41.464954 81.355950 149.415075 255.930208 428.763639
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.500449 18.867984 40.801979 82.605612 155.611625 272.042680 464.001264
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.198560 16.749202 38.139793 80.496863 156.779382 281.467031 491.329530
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.326123 15.409030 36.826821 80.769265 162.168075 298.221989 531.512346
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.677185 14.438620 36.100022 82.024027 169.312194 318.189461 577.771573
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.601653 12.139248 32.222198 76.673055 164.028577 316.937417 589.286838
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.236307 11.599406 32.078782 78.752210 172.553116 339.601378 641.346555
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.744540 10.575557 30.669224 78.025960 175.651428 352.922634 678.213148
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.630870 10.639302 31.830851 82.878682 189.855319 386.542375 751.101905
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.069343 9.146520 28.950336 78.560651 185.597762 386.762431 766.233370
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.901867 8.897777 29.175517 81.224474 195.553317 413.319556 828.512920
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.854786 9.059683 30.502409 86.547455 211.295003 451.258187 912.361792
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.697878 8.778177 30.589455 88.949094 221.078086 478.462081 977.990479